Sudan: The Forgotten War

On April 15th, 2023, Sudan witnessed violent confrontations between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), resulting in the displacement of nearly 8 million individuals, encompassing internally displaced people (IDPs), asylum seekers, and refugees. This conflict has compounded Sudan's pre-existing challenges, including ongoing conflicts, disease outbreaks, economic and political instability, and climate emergencies.

The roots of the crisis in Sudan trace back to the Darfur crisis in 2003, where violence and displacement were already prevalent. Sudan housed over 1 million refugees, the second-highest refugee population in Africa, primarily originating from South Sudan and Northern Ethiopia, with many fleeing conflict in Tigray.

The recent hostilities between the SAF and RSF unfolded amid Sudan's highest levels of humanitarian need in a decade. The removal of authoritarian leader Omar al-Bashir in 2019 initially sparked optimism for a return to civilian rule. However, a military coup two years later dissolved the transitional civilian government, sparking political and economic turmoil and rekindling intercommunal conflicts.

Sudan has also borne the brunt of severe weather events linked to climate change, such as floods and droughts, adversely impacting hundreds of thousands and exacerbating food insecurity due to crop and livestock destruction.

Since the onset of the recent clashes on April 15th, the humanitarian situation has worsened. Half of Sudan's population, around 25 million people, require humanitarian assistance and protection. The country is grappling with severe shortages of food, water, medicine, and fuel, with nearly 18 million individuals facing acute food insecurity.

To which destinations are individuals affected by the conflict seeking refuge?

Due to the absence of essential provisions, coupled with violence and uncertainty, a significant number of people have been compelled to abandon their residences.

As of February 2024, close to 8 million individuals have experienced displacement. This encompasses over 6 million internally displaced within Sudan and more than 1.5 million seeking refuge in neighbouring countries.

Chad has received the largest influx, accommodating 553,150 individuals, followed by Egypt (450,000), South Sudan (114,174), Ethiopia (31,745), and the Central African Republic (22,059). In South Sudan, the majority of arrivals are returning nationals who were previously residing in Sudan as refugees.

Unless a resolution to the crisis is achieved, hundreds of thousands more individuals are likely to be compelled to flee in pursuit of safety and essential aid.

Which demographic groups face increased vulnerability due to displacement and conflict?

The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan is disproportionately affecting women and children. According to UN estimates, even before the onset of conflict, over 3 million women and girls in Sudan were at risk of gender-based violence, including intimate-partner violence.

Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, emphasizes the harrowing experiences described by displaced women and girls fleeing Sudan. He asserts the urgent need for support to survivors and those at risk, highlighting the critical shortfall in funding.

Attacks on healthcare facilities, equipment, and personnel are exacerbating the deprivation of life-saving care for women and girls, with pregnant women facing the most severe consequences, as reported by the World Health Organization and UNFPA. Nearly three-quarters of health facilities are non-operational, and diseases such as cholera, measles, and malaria are spreading, coinciding with two-thirds of the population lacking access to healthcare.

The conflict has also disrupted the education of approximately 12 million children since April, bringing the total number of out-of-school children in Sudan to 19 million.

Sudan has not merely slipped down the international agenda but has essentially disappeared from it. However, the ongoing conflict that erupted since the commencement of civil war last April, leading to a resurgence of ethnic cleansing, bears both geopolitical and humanitarian consequences that the global community has yet to fully grasp.

This conflict has brought the anarchy witnessed in the Sahel region right to Sudan's 650km Red Sea coastline, posing a threat to spread some of Africa's most severe issues into the Middle East and vice versa. The involvement of external powers has further complicated matters, with Gulf states aligning themselves with the two generals vying for control over the remains of the Sudanese state.

While it might be considered a peripheral issue, reports indicating the presence of a small unit of Ukrainian troops combating Russian mercenaries within Sudan underscore how the country has evolved into a focal point for global chaos.

In sheer numerical terms, the resultant humanitarian crisis is arguably the world's most severe. Approximately 2 million people have fled Khartoum alone, a city witnessing intense conflict. Overall, around 8 million Sudanese have been displaced from their homes, with nearly a quarter of them seeking refuge outside the country.

The diplomatic response has been equally lacklustre. African mediation efforts have yielded no progress. The Jeddah talks from last year, facilitated by the US and Saudi Arabia, excluded the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – a significant investor in Sudan.

Despite the UAE's denial, a UN panel of experts' report presents credible evidence of Emirati involvement in arming the Rapid Support Forces, a rogue paramilitary group and one of the conflicting parties. The fact that General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti, the leader of this paramilitary group accused of genocide in Darfur, is considered a potential mediator illustrates the perilous situation Sudan finds itself in.

Other nations, including Egypt and Iran, have thrown their support behind the Sudanese Armed Forces. A recent influx of weapons, including drones, has empowered government forces to mount a counteroffensive, pushing the conflict back into Omdurman, Khartoum's twin city across the Nile.

Finding a viable solution to Sudan's deeply rooted crisis, which threatens to turn into another Somalia, remains a daunting challenge. The tentative hope is that somehow the genie of war can be contained and restrained.