Two Years of Russia-Ukraine War

On February 24, 2022, Ukraine experienced an invasion by Russia, initiating the most significant conflict in Europe since World War II. Two years later, there is no resolution in sight for this protracted war that has displaced millions of Ukrainians, reshaped the geopolitical landscape of Europe, and had global economic repercussions through disrupted supply chains, heightened inflation, and significant economic uncertainty.

As we mark the second anniversary of the invasion, the question arises: where does the war currently stand, and to what extent have Russia and Ukraine, supported by Western nations, achieved their primary objectives?

Initially, there was a widespread expectation that Russia would swiftly overcome Ukrainian defences and capture Kyiv. In early February 2022, Gen. Mark Milley, then Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly informed congressional leaders that Ukraine could collapse within 72 hours of a full-scale Russian invasion. However, over the past two years, Ukrainians have displayed remarkable resolve, successfully defending their country and thwarting immediate Russian advances.

Despite Ukraine's initial resilience, the present momentum in the war favours Russia. Ukrainian forces grapple with acute shortages of equipment and manpower, while Russia has adeptly adjusted its tactics to the evolving nature of the conflict. Crucially, Russia has managed to shield its economy from Western sanctions, resulting in unexpected economic growth that defied Western expectations.

This doesn't resemble the swift and overwhelming approach seen in American military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, characterized by a shock-and-awe strategy involving extensive use of aeroplanes and missiles to neutralize enemy air defences, culminating in a triumphant occupation of the country.

In Ukraine, the Russians encountered a determined defence, prompting them to realize the potential for a prolonged conflict and adjust their tactics accordingly.

An illustrative instance involves the use of drones. Initially, Ukrainian drones achieved significant successes, leading the Russians to not only adopt drone technology but also devise countermeasures. While occasional drones may still penetrate deep into Russia, their capacity to inflict damage has diminished compared to the initial months of the war.

From a European perspective, Russia appears more threatening today, despite its dependence on the U.S. for security. Donald Trump's stance, indicating a reluctance to assist countries not investing in their defence, raises questions about the future of the trans-Atlantic military compact, both within and outside the NATO framework.

Presently, the trans-Atlantic framework faces no immediate challenges, and NATO remains steadfast. In fact, Russia's actions have strengthened NATO, with new additions like Finland and Sweden. Despite the war impacting Europe's economies, resulting in political ramifications, overall support for the Ukraine conflict remains strong.

A definitive outcome of the war is the anticipated increased militarization of Europe. Countries across the continent are expected to augment defence spending, signalling a prominent military security dimension in Europe's near future.

India's relationship with Russia encompasses multiple dimensions. Although the energy aspect of this collaboration, which saw significant growth post-war, is viewed as largely opportunistic, the defence facet is more structural, with over 40% of India's defence imports, including crucial offensive and defensive weaponry, sourced from Russia. India also perceives Russia, as a dominant force in Eurasia, as a crucial long-term strategic partner in addressing its continental challenges. However, the looming presence of China complicates matters.

Following the war, when the Western alliance imposed severe sanctions on Russia, the latter redirected its focus to Asia, particularly towards a closer association with China. President Vladimir Putin's visit to China just before initiating his "special military operation" and meeting with President Xi Jinping signalled a deepening of ties between Russia and China. This development sparked varied opinions on India's strategic choices. Some argued that the growing collaboration between Russia and China should prompt India to reassess its policy towards Russia. Others, including the writer, contended that India should exercise caution to avoid pushing Russia further into China's embrace by aligning with the anti-Russian Western stance, opting instead to maintain its engagement with Moscow, thereby allowing Russia to diversify its Asian pivot.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, speaking at the Raisina Dialogue last week, elucidated his perspective on this matter. He emphasized the importance of providing Russia with more options rather than closing doors and pushing it towards a closer alliance with China. While acknowledging concerns about the deepening China-Russia partnership, Jaishankar's policy recommendations displayed a nuanced approach, acknowledging that numerous doors have closed for Russia in the West. He suggested the need to understand the reasons behind Russia turning to non-Western parts of the world and advocated for offering Russia multiple options.

These remarks by Jaishankar coincided with the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Initially anticipated as a swift military operation, the conflict has transformed into the largest land war in Europe since World War II. The war's trajectory has experienced multiple shifts over the past two years. Russia initially made advances into Ukraine but faced setbacks and territorial losses. Following a partial mobilization and the construction of robust defence fortifications along the frontline, Russia is now on the offensive, seemingly regaining momentum. In December, it captured Maryinka, and recently, Ukraine was compelled to abandon Avdiivka, a strategically vital town in Donetsk.

Ukraine, grappling with a shortage of manpower and arms, finds itself in a challenging phase. Internal differences surfaced when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander of Ukraine's armed forces. In many ways, the war is reshaping the global order, particularly concerning Russia. It has laid bare the limits of the West and propelled Russia into deeper authoritarianism.