Myanmar's Ongoing Civil Conflict and Its Impact on India's Interests

In February 2021, the Myanmar military leaders removed the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, expecting a resistance movement that would diminish within a few months. However, three years later, opposition to military rule is growing stronger. Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and the People’s Defence Forces now control numerous towns in various parts of the country. Recently, the Arakan Army seized Paletwa in the Chin State, situated on Myanmar’s western borders with Bangladesh and India.

This development has created a conflict within a conflict, altering the dynamics between the Chin and Arakan ethnic groups. The majority of Paletwa’s residents belong to the Chin ethnic community, viewing their town as an integral part of their homeland. Conversely, some in the Rakhine State, formerly known as Arakan, argue that the township was historically part of the Arakan Hill Tracts during colonial rule and should have been within their province. Instances before the coup witnessed Chin ethnic organizations expressing discontent with the Arakan Army’s operations in Paletwa.

Situated on the western border, Paletwa serves as a strategic base for the Arakan Army to carry out military operations. Being a commercial hub on the Kaladan River, the town offers economic advantages to any armed group establishing a substantial presence in the area.

The fall of the town of Paletwa has altered the dynamic between the Chin and the Arakan ethnic groups. A majority of Paletwa’s residents belong to the Chin ethnic community, and they see their town as an integral part of their homeland. On the other hand, some in the Rakhine State, previously known as Arakan, contend that the township was historically part of the Arakan Hill Tracts during colonial rule and should have been part of their province. There have been instances, prior to the coup, when Chin ethnic organisations expressed displeasure with the Arakan Army’s operations in Paletwa. In the recent past, ever since the Chin armed groups and the Arakan army have been fighting the Myanmar military, they have refrained from forcefully ascertaining their respective views of provincial borders. Nonetheless, to maintain peace and order, it is imperative that the Chin and Arakan groups agree on an inclusive framework for the governance of Paletwa and adjoining areas.

Formulating an inter-ethnic consensus on locales such as Paletwa proves to be a formidable challenge. Paletwa's position on the western border offers a strategic base for the Arakan Army's military endeavors, leveraging the economic activity in the commercial town on the Kaladan River.

India's Interest

Developments in Paletwa significantly influence India's Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) in Myanmar, which has encountered substantial delays. The Kaladan initiative aims to address the geo-economic challenges of northeast India, unlocking access to the sea as an alternative to the narrow Siliguri corridor. The agreement between India and Myanmar was signed in 2008, but operationalization faced delays due to terrain difficulties, coordination issues, political instability, and security challenges. Although the Sittwe port and inland water terminal at Paletwa are completed, road construction encounters obstacles due to the ongoing security situation in Myanmar.

The populace in Mizoram and neighbouring Chin State anticipates the swift completion of the Kaladan project, anticipating economic stimulation in the region. However, there's a perceived reluctance from the Arakan Army toward the Kaladan project, with reports suggesting coordinated operations between India and Myanmar against Arakan Army units near Mizoram's borders. In 2019, the Arakan Army reportedly kidnapped five Indian workers involved in the project, leading to the death of one worker in their custody due to a cardiac arrest.

Chinese Investments

The Arakan Army, part of the Three Brotherhood alliance, is speculated to have China's support, pledging protection to Chinese investments in Myanmar. Reports indicate significant funding and military equipment from China to the Arakan Army, raising concerns in Delhi about potential hindrance to India's connectivity projects in Myanmar. China's economic presence along Myanmar's Bay of Bengal coast has expanded, operationalizing oil and gas pipelines from the Shwe gas fields in the Rakhine State to Yunnan province.

Unlike India, China's permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council allows for more accommodating responses to its concerns, potentially extending political and military support to ethnic armed groups and the Myanmar military. The successful realization of the Kaladan project necessitates not only skilled technical personnel but also experts monitoring fluid Chin-Arakan relations, evolving military-EAO dynamics, sectarian violence in the Rakhine state, and China's increasing footprint in Myanmar, particularly in the Rakhine state. This experience underscores the need to centralize such expertise for the efficient implementation of various connectivity and development projects in India's immediate neighbourhood.