What is at Stake as Tensions Rise Between India and Maldives?

The Maldives has issued a deadline until mid-March for India to withdraw its troops from the archipelago nation, as its newly elected pro-China president strengthens ties with Beijing.

This ultimatum comes after President Mohamed Muizzu's five-day state visit to China, marking his first official trip since taking office. Muizzu, who campaigned on an "India Out" platform, also moved to scrap a key pact involving a water survey.

India's response is anticipated during the upcoming talks in February.

As per officials in Male and New Delhi, the archipelago nation currently hosts 77 Indian soldiers, along with 12 medical personnel from the Indian armed forces. India asserts that these troops contribute to humanitarian aid, medical evacuations, and overall security for the remote islands, managing operations with two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft.

Recent reports indicate that the two Advanced Light Helicopters (ALH) under Maldivian colours, a Dornier aircraft, and an Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) have all been grounded.

The Muizzu administration has also chosen not to renew the prior agreement with India on a hydrographic survey of the Maldivian waters, the first bilateral pact terminated by the new government.

The agreement, signed on June 8, 2019, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the Maldives at the invitation of then President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, allowed India to conduct a hydrographic survey of the Maldivian territorial waters, study and chart reefs, lagoons, coastlines, ocean currents and tide levels.

The decision, made after consulting the cabinet, is explained by Mohamed Firuzul Abdul Khaleel, Undersecretary for Public Policy at the Maldives President’s Office, who states that enhancing the Maldivian military's capability for such surveys is crucial for national security.

Why do the Maldives seek the withdrawal of Indian troops?

Despite the historically strong ties between India and the Maldives, where New Delhi provides essential supplies such as rice, vegetables, medicines, and humanitarian aid for the island nation's 500,000 people, concerns about dependence on India and allegations of interference in domestic politics have grown.

President Muizzu, elected on an 'India Out' agenda, views New Delhi's influence as a threat to the Maldives' sovereignty and has pledged to remove Indian troops from the country. The call for withdrawal occurs amid escalating tensions between New Delhi and Beijing over border disputes and regional influence.

In a post on X, the Indian leader described Lakshadweep as “mesmerising” and declared: “For those who wish to embrace the adventurer in them, Lakshadweep has to be on your list.”

The same day, hundreds of right-wing handles and BJP supporters began trending Lakshadweep and putting down the Maldives, which has long been a preferred vacation spot for India’s glitterati and the ultra-wealthy across the world. “What a great move! It’s a big setback to the new Chinese puppet government of Maldives. Also, it will boost tourism in #Lakshadweep,” posted @MrSinha_, a known extreme right-wing influencer. By January 10, the post had 3.2 million views.

Soon, many Maldivians retaliated by defending their country. Some denigrated all Indians. Unfortunately, three Maldivian officials were intemperate in their response and went one step further to mock the Indian Prime Minister.

It soon became a full-blown diplomatic row. The Indian High Commissioner in Maldives took up the issue of “denigrating” the Indian Prime Minister and the Maldivian officials were suspended, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs summoned the Maldivian High Commissioner, and the right-wing attacked anyone who posted anything good about Maldives. Worse, an Indian travel aggregator removed Male as a destination from its travel website, a largely opportunistic move because there was no impact on flights to the archipelago from India. Some commerce organisations announced they would not trade with Maldives.

How is China involved?

The fracas could not have been timed worse. It blew up just when Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu began his second foreign trip—to China. Unlike earlier Presidents, Muizzu did not visit New Delhi for his first foreign trip; he picked Turkiye. And he picked China second. By the time Muizzu landed in China, under attack by the Maldivian opposition and fearing that the Indian boycott might become reality, one of the first things he did was request China to send more tourists to Maldives.

On January 10, Chinese President Xi Jinping took the cue. The Muizzu–Xi official talks were held at Beijing’s East Hall of the Great Hall of the People. Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer said, “Constructive dialogue and excited about the positive strides ahead.” The Maldivian President’s office, on January 11, announced that Maldives and China had signed 20 MoUs. Of particular interest is the decision to “elevate China-Maldives relations to comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership”. This relationship will run from 2024 to 2028.

What is at stake if India-Maldives ties deteriorate?

The strained relations pose a threat to the diplomatic and political ties built over six decades. The Maldives' strategic location near India's west coast and major sea lanes, through which a significant portion of China's oil imports passes, makes it crucial for India's maritime security.

Maldives’ proximity to the west coast of India (barely 70 nautical miles from Minicoy and 300 nautical miles from India’s West coast), and its location at the hub of commercial sea lanes running through the Indian Ocean (particularly the 8° N and 1 ½° N channels) imbues it with significant strategic importance to India. The islands sit along one of the busiest maritime trade highways in the Indian Ocean, through which nearly 80% of China’s oil imports pass.

For India, any potential Chinese military presence in Maldives would be considered a threat in its regional backyard. Recent attacks by Houthi forces on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have highlighted the vulnerability of maritime trade routes and the need to protect them. Maldives is one of the key elements in India’s maritime security calculus. The security scenario in India’s periphery in the Indian Ocean is very much linked to the maritime strength of Maldives.

This is the reason why India invests in Maldives’ security by training its defence forces. Estimates suggest that almost 70 per cent of Maldives’ defence training is done by India — either on the islands or in India’s elite military academies.

India has trained over 1,500 Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) personnel in the past 10 years. The Indian Navy has given aircraft and choppers to the Maldivian defence forces for aerial surveillance and has trained their personnel on how to land vertically in the islands.

India also wants to set up a coastal radar system in Maldives, to keep an eye on the activities in the Indian Ocean

The Chinese have also worked their way in, in the past 15 years. Maldives opened its embassy in that country in 2009, and China opened its embassy as recently as 2011. But with investments into projects, especially since President Xi Jinping came to power and pushed the Belt and Road Initiative, Male has been actively wooed by the Chinese.

So, from a purely strategic perspective, India needs the Maldives on its side to secure its maritime periphery, keep an eye on the Indian Ocean, and check the influence of China in its neighbourhood.

Meanwhile, Maldives is dependent on India for most items, and hence India is among its top trading partners. Of the Rs 50 crore total trade between India and Maldives in 2022, Rs 49 crore was India’s exports to Maldives. India emerged as Maldives’ second-largest trade partner in 2022.

India has been the main pillar of help for Maldives in times of crisis and distress.

When a tsunami struck the islands in 2004, India was the first to send in help. Again, in 2014, when Male suddenly had a drinking water crisis as the major desalination plant broke down, India overnight airlifted drinking water to the islands.

When there was a coup attempt in 1988 against then-President Abdul Gayoom, India sent in troops to fight the combatants.

Indian Navy and the Maldivian Navy conduct joint exercises and Indian assets are always in readiness in the vicinity to protect the island nation.

The need to de-escalate tensions arises from shared interests in maritime security and regional stability, urging New Delhi and Male to address concerns and prioritize cooperation for mutual benefits.