Russia Failing to Supply Arms to India due to Ukraine War: IAF

During a recent hearing with an Indian parliamentary committee, an IAF representative confirmed that a major delivery from Moscow will not take place because of the conflict in Ukraine. This marks the first official confirmation by Indian authorities amid rumours of Russian capacity shortcomings in the media. The report did not specify which delivery was affected, but the biggest ongoing delivery is the $5.4 billion purchase of the S-400 Triumf air defence system by India in 2018. Reuters reports that three of these systems have already been delivered, while two more are pending. Additionally, the IAF relies on Russia for spare parts for its Su-30MKI and MiG-29 fighter jets, which are crucial to the branch's operations.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia is the world's second-largest arms exporter. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a large-scale effort to increase weapons production capacity for the war, citing an urgent need. The move followed repeated complaints from Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin that his mercenaries lacked sufficient munitions for their prolonged battle in Bakhmut.

New Delhi has strong ties with Moscow dating back to the Cold War and relies heavily on the Kremlin for its military equipment, especially given the ongoing tensions along India's shared Himalayan border with an increasingly assertive China.

The IAF's admission that Russia is unable to fulfil its arms delivery commitments to India due to the Ukraine crisis is a serious concern, according to Harsh V. Pant, Vice President of Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. The trend towards diversification and reducing dependence on Russia has been accelerating for some time, and a SIPRI report published this month revealed that Russia remains India's largest arms supplier despite a drop in defence imports from 62 per cent to 45 per cent between 2017 and 2022.

According to experts, India's decreasing dependence on Russian arms imports may be due to its efforts to diversify and promote domestically produced equipment. In September of last year, a US State Department official indicated that India was in discussions with the US regarding its reliance on Russian arms and energy, citing concerns about Russia's reliability as a weapons supplier. Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, India has maintained a neutral position, abstaining from condemning Russia's actions and instead increasing its purchases of Russian oil, coal, and fertiliser. However, with Putin's continued aggression and rising food and fuel prices, some believe that India's patience with Moscow may be wearing thin. The recent announcement by the Indian Air Force about Russia's inability to fulfil arms delivery commitments could be a sign of this growing strain on the relationship between the two countries, according to Harsh V. Pant, vice president of studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. He suggests that the current trajectory of the relationship is unsustainable given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.